Fecha de publicación: 26/11/2024 Fuente: Morning Star Lugar: Articles California Tomatoes in 2025: Challenges, Opportunities, and Innovations
As we near the close of 2024, California’s agricultural landscape offers both challenges and optimism, with growers already setting their sights on a fruitful 2025. Agriculture has always been rooted in hope—each seed planted carries the promise of future abundance. This year, despite hurdles, the outlook for California’s processing tomato industry remains positive.
The 2024 season concluded with California producing 11 million short tons of tomatoes, slightly below the January forecast of 11.6 million short tons. Mid-season heat waves tested growers’ resilience, but the resulting inventory carryover, projected at just over three months as of July 2025, provides a stable buffer above the ideal two-month threshold. With demand holding steady, crop availability for the upcoming season is not expected to face significant constraints, offering reassurance for processors and manufacturers alike.
Figure 1, Source: CA Dept. of Water Resources
Environmental factors are always top of mind for California’s growers. Reservoirs currently sit above normal levels (Figure 1), aided by favorable precipitation early in the season. However, the anticipation of a potential La Niña brings concerns about reduced rainfall and snowfall. Water availability, a perennial issue in the state, continues to evolve under the ten-year-old Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. Restrictions are starting to take hold, but local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies are working on innovative solutions to mitigate impacts. Morning Star, through years of strategic planning, has reinforced its grower portfolio to adapt to these changes.
Gradient Crop Yield Solutions Station Sensor
Morning Star’s forward-looking approach to water sustainability underscores our commitment to the future. By proactively analyzing water reliability risks and adjusting our tomato acquisition strategy, we’re aligning with the shifting landscape of water resources driven by urban, environmental, and industrial demands. For example, our investment in cutting-edge irrigation technologies, such as drip systems and AI-powered monitoring, enables growers to use water more efficiently while maintaining and improving yields. This preparation also includes diversifying our grower network and forming sustainable partnerships, positioning us to thrive regardless of resource challenges. Similarly, advances in pest management, such as combating parasitic weeds like broomrape and diseases like the curly top virus, reflect our dedication to resilient crop sourcing and sanitation protocols, minimizing the risk of crop losses.
The political landscape also introduces uncertainty, with a new administration potentially reshaping policies affecting agriculture. While export-heavy crops may face challenges from evolving tariffs and trade agreements, the mechanized nature of planting and harvesting processing tomatoes makes this sector less reliant on labor, insulating it from workforce disruptions. Morning Star continues to monitor these developments closely, advocating for policies that support growers and processors alike.
Competing crops play an important role in shaping California’s agricultural decisions. Almond acreage dropped again in 2024, marking three consecutive years of decline, with expectations for this trend to continue in 2025. This shift increases the availability of land and water for growing annual crops. Meanwhile, prices and returns for staple crops like rice, corn, and alfalfa remain under pressure, particularly in the Central Valley. As a result, many growers are showing strong interest in growing processing tomatoes for 2025, attracted by stable returns and reliable demand.

At Morning Star, we are steadfast in our mission to support a sustainable future for the California tomato industry. Through strategic supply chain adjustments, ongoing R&D, and the integration of advanced technologies such as AI-driven crop management, satellite imagery, and robotic innovations like automated transplanters and laser-guided weeding, we are setting the stage for long-term success. By fostering innovative partnerships and leveraging insights into water trends, we ensure that our growers—and the industry as a whole—are well-prepared to navigate future challenges.
California agriculture thrives on resilience and adaptability. Thanks to the collective efforts of growers, processors, and industry stakeholders, the promise of a bountiful harvest remains within reach. Morning Star is proud to stand at the forefront, championing sustainable practices and innovation for a vibrant and enduring agricultural future.
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