Fuente: PubMed "Tomato process" Am J Clin Nutr. 2025 Dec 24:101174. doi: 10.1016/j.ajcnut.2025.101174. Online ahead of print.ABSTRACTBACKGROUND: The historical disruption of Indigenous food systems in the United States (US) has been a leading driver of contemporary nutrition-related health disparities. More information is needed to understand how climate change may impact the capacity of Indigenous food systems to support diet quality in the future.OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to model the impact of climate change (global climate models GFDL 370, GISSG 245, GISSG 370, GISSH 245, and GISSH 370) on the agricultural capacity of all 24 tribal nations in Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina to support recommended dietary intakes using prime agricultural land, and by expanding agricultural production onto subprime agricultural land.METHODS: A biophysical simulation model was used to evaluate the agricultural capacity of tribal lands to support a diet pattern that is consistent with the 2020-2025 US Dietary Guidelines for Americans. The model represented a regional Indigenous food system as a series of integrated biological processes that transform user-inputted diet patterns into the agricultural resources needed to produce them. The model was parameterized for local conditions using primary data collected from partnering Indigenous tribes, data from a previously published geoclimatic model, and publicly available secondary data.RESULTS: Under near-future (2021-2040) climate conditions, prime agricultural land was not able to support all dietary recommendations for the population. By expanding agricultural production onto low/moderate-suitability land, and by importing red/orange vegetables (tomatoes, sweet potatoes, and winter squash), 18-59% of the population was estimated to meet their dietary recommendations. Further expansion onto marginal agricultural land was estimated to support 213% of the population's dietary needs without any imports.CONCLUSIONS: Under modeled conditions, we estimated that Indigenous agriculture in the eastern US can support some, but not all, of the population's dietary needs. Greater efforts are needed to foster agricultural initiatives that promote food sovereignty and reduce nutrition-related health disparities, but their viability in this region will depend on future supply-demand dynamics that are influenced by changing political landscapes.PMID:41453618 | DOI:10.1016/j.ajcnut.2025.101174