Fuente: Sustainability - Revista científica (MDPI) Sustainability, Vol. 18, Pages 5474: Compound and Consecutive Extreme Events in Salzburg Under Different Climate Change Scenarios: Combining Stakeholder Insights with Future Climate Model Projections
Sustainability doi: 10.3390/su18115474
Authors:
Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek
Barry Evans
Romana Berg
Kristofer Hasel
Albert S. Chen

Compound and consecutive extreme events are increasingly understood as key contributors to climate risk, as their interactions can intensify impacts beyond those produced by individual hazards alone threatening the long-term sustainability of regional infrastructure. Compound coincident events involve multiple climate drivers or hazards that occur simultaneously or in close temporal proximity, exhibiting overlapping spatial and temporal characteristics. For assessing multi-hazards, information on critical thresholds of the events investigated (extreme precipitation and wind gusts in the presented study) is key, as is the time frame needed to determine the probability of event B after an event A. As this data is location-specific, stakeholder integration provides a potential tool for gathering this information to enable socially robust disaster risk management. The presented study displays a potential interdisciplinary approach to how multi-hazards and their occurrence can be investigated locally. Therefore, stakeholder integration is combined with climate model output and a copula-based analysis of compound coincident and consecutive extreme daily wind and precipitation events for the Salzburg region under different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). Through stakeholder integration, relevant thresholds and potential time frames were identified. Our findings indicate that the thresholds critical to the considered assets (properties, transport, energy) are well aligned between different stakeholders; however, the time frame of increased vulnerability due to a previous event differs strongly between them. Compared to the baseline scenarios, the ranges within the climate model used for rainfall and wind speed intensity under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are examined, and, for rainfall, have expanded to greater values for both compound coincident and consecutive events, highlighting challenges and future research needs for sustainable adaptation and regional policy.