Fuente: Sustainability - Revista científica (MDPI) Sustainability, Vol. 18, Pages 690: Forecasting Solar Energy Production Using Artificial Neural Networks and Tyrannosaurus Optimization Algorithm
Sustainability doi: 10.3390/su18020690
Authors:
Emre Güler
Mehmet Zeki Bilgin

Accurate forecasting of solar energy production plays a crucial role in optimizing power system reliability, scheduling, and integration of renewable energy sources into the grid. From a sustainability perspective, improved forecasting accuracy supports more efficient day-ahead planning, reduces imbalance costs, and contributes to the sustainable operation of solar energy systems. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are widely applied for this purpose due to their capability to capture complex nonlinear relationships between meteorological variables and solar power output. However, the performance of ANNs depends on the number of layers, the number of neurons in the hidden layer, the max failure value, and the transfer function. This study proposes a hybrid forecasting model that combines artificial neural networks with the recently developed Tyrannosaurus Optimization Algorithm (TROA), a metaheuristic optimization method. The aim is to optimize the hyperparameters of artificial neural networks to minimize the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in solar energy forecasting. The results of the TROA were compared with other metaheuristic methods, such as Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Genetic Algorithm (GA). The TROA gave the network structure for ANNs, which forecasted closer to the actual values than other metaheuristic methods and showed success on 105 days of the test dataset, with an MAPE rate of 3.64%. Additionally, an MAPE of 1.42% was obtained over a test period of 18 days used for out-of-evaluation, indicating competitive performance compared to the other methods. These findings highlight the effectiveness of the TROA in forecasting solar energy using ANNs.