Fuente: Sustainability - Revista científica (MDPI) Sustainability, Vol. 18, Pages 5610: Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Performance of Egypt’s Fish Foreign Trade
Sustainability doi: 10.3390/su18115610
Authors:
Salah S. Abd El-Ghani
Ahmed Nasr Saad Dosoky
Diaa Elhaq Ibrahim Ibrahim Sharaa
Sara Ahmed Fouad Mohamed

This study examines the impact of climate change on the performance of Egypt’s fish foreign trade during the period from 1995 to 2022. The analysis incorporates a set of climate indicators, including average surface air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, carbon dioxide emissions, methane emissions, and nitrous oxide emissions, in addition to fish trade indicators represented by exports, imports, total trade volume, trade balance, and export-to-import coverage ratio. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate both the short-run and long-run relationships between climate change variables and fish foreign trade performance in Egypt. Unit root tests confirmed that the variables were integrated at mixed orders I(0) and I(1), supporting the suitability of the ARDL methodology. The findings reveal the existence of a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship between climate change indicators and Egyptian fish exports. In particular, nitrous oxide emissions exerted a significant negative effect on fish exports in the long run, while rainfall showed a positive short-run effect. The results also indicate that approximately 57% of short-run disequilibria are corrected annually toward the long-run equilibrium. In contrast, no long-run cointegration relationship was found between climate variables and fish imports, total fish trade volume, or the fish trade balance, indicating that climate impacts on these indicators are mainly short-term in nature. The study concludes that climate change represents an important determinant of Egypt’s fish trade performance through its effects on productivity, environmental quality, and trade competitiveness. The findings highlight the need for integrated adaptation and mitigation policies to strengthen the sustainability and resilience of Egypt’s fisheries sector under changing climatic conditions.