Fuente: Sustainability - Revista científica (MDPI) Sustainability, Vol. 18, Pages 5594: Assessing Mangrove Recovery Dynamics and Replacement Cost Estimates for Sustainable Coastal Management Using a Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing and GEP Accounting Framework in Dongzhai Harbor, China
Sustainability doi: 10.3390/su18115594
Authors:
Yuan Lin
Wenjie Liu
Peng Wang

As coastal communities face escalating climate risks driven by climate change and biodiversity loss, integrating mangrove ecosystems into sustainability-oriented governance frameworks spanning ecological conservation, climate adaptation, and natural capital accounting has become a global priority. However, quantifying their protection values based on spatiotemporal shoreline dynamics under extreme disturbance remains challenging. Focusing on Dongzhai Harbor (China), this study integrates multi-temporal remote sensing (2010–2021), shoreline evolution analysis, and the Replacement Cost Method to assess ecosystem resilience against Super Typhoon Rammasun in 2014. Results show mangroves exhibited substantial post-disturbance resilience, with only 6.10% area loss following Typhoon Rammasun and 46% natural recovery within six years. Bootstrap confidence intervals for the mangrove-shoreline association overlapped zero across all three temporal periods, indicating that the observational data do not support a statistically confirmed causal protection effect at the landscape scale. This finding underscores that spatially co-occurring ecosystem services do not automatically imply causation, reinforcing the need for empirically grounded valuation in sustainable land-use planning. Because mangroves naturally establish in sheltered environments, the observed spatial overlap between mangroves and the shoreline cannot be interpreted as direct evidence of causal shoreline stabilization. Based on this framework, the potential protection value reached 907.65 × 104 CNY yr−1 across 32.57 km of weighted coastline aligned with mangroves. Notably, erosional segments contributed 50.5% of this value despite comprising only 27.3% of the length, indicating that the replacement-cost estimate is concentrated in erosional segments under the assumed parameters. While acknowledging the need for local biophysical validation and uncertainty analysis in scaling, these findings support integrating dynamic nature-based solutions into territorial planning and Gross Ecosystem Product accounting. The resulting valuation framework offers a replicable pathway for advancing multi-dimensional sustainability encompassing climate-adaptive coastal governance, natural capital integration, and evidence-based coastal spatial planning.